Is the Treasury rally just getting started?
Treasury bonds have gone from a hot potato asset nobody wanted to hold to an asset that has staged a historically sharp rally. Like most rallies, capitulation selling made it possible. Panicked selling in government-issued fixed-income securities left investors sidelined and speculators massively short the market. However, the COT (Commitments of Traders) data via the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) tells us that we are merely beginning to unwind what was one of the most significant overcrowded trades in history. Jim Cramer discussed this on the December 12th episode of Mad Money on CNBC.