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The DeCarley Perspective...
Futures Chart of the Day Archive
Technical analysis of commodity and financial futures markets by DeCarley Trading.
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Corn COT Report April 26 - The Commitments of Traders Report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) suggests corn speculators are holding record net short positions. -
Corn Futures Chart Update April 26 - Corn futures have been in a downward spiral since the last USDA report. However, with "everyone" already short there might not be any sellers left. -
NASDAQ Monthly Futures Chart April 24 - Remember this chart from Mad Money with Jim Cramer a few weeks ago? The NASDAQ is testing resistance! -
Natural Gas Seasonal Tendency April 19 - The seasonal tendency for natural gas in the cash market often see firmer prices going into the summer cooling months.
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Natural Gas Weekly Chart April 19 - A bigger picture look at natural gas futures traded on the CME Group's NYMEX depict a market that has spent little time beneath .50. -
Natural Gas Daily Chart April 19 - The natural gas futures market has slumped in recent weeks but positive seasonality and technical support suggest the downside could be limited. -
Wheat Futures a Bargain? February 26 - The wheat futures market has been in a tailwind but we wonder if all of the bearish news is out and the sellers have already taken action. This could be a long-term opportunity for the bulls. -
Corn Futures Chart Corn Futures February 2019 - Corn prices appear to be overly cheap at the precise time of year the market is generally building a risk premium ahead of planting season. We can't rule out a probing low to blow through sell stops, but the upside should produce the best trades.
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Soybean Futures Chart February 2018 - Soybean futures have suffered at the hands of Chinese trade issues but appear to be holding trendline support. We think just under per bushel is possible. -
US Dollar Index Futures Weekly Chart January 14, 2019 - The US dollar index futures contract traded on the ICE exchange appears to be rolling over. We are looking for a move into the low s. -
Euro Futures Weekly Chart January 14, 2019 - The euro currency has been lifeless, but that might change in 2019. The chart is suggesting a move into the low 128.20s. -
Natural Gas Futures January 8, 2019 - The natural gas market squeezed out the shorts, then the longs. However, prices have fallen into oversold territory and appear to be holding technical support. Will we see .70 again?
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Crude oil weekly chart December 27, 2018 - Look for the .00 level to hold in WTI crude oil futures. If so, the market could be due for a rally. -
S&P 500 monthly chart December 27th, 2018 - The S&P 500 has been pummeled during the holidays, but maybe that was Santa's gift. If support holds, the bulls should be back in control. -
Bullish Corn Trade December 27, 2018 - Corn futures have struggled to make gains in the wake of weaker stocks and oil prices. But fundamentals remain supportive and the chart suggests the downside is limited. -
Crude oil futures stabilize December 12, 2018 - Selling in crude oil futures brought the stock market along for the ride last month, but now that oil has stabilized the stock market should too.
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ES Futures Range Trade December 12, 2018 - Each dip feels devastating but the reality is, the stock market is simply trading in a switchback pattern in a defined trading range. As long as support holds, the bulls have an edge. -
Weekly ES Futures Chart December 12, 2018 - The E-mini S&P 500 futures contract, which trades 23-hours per day, suggests on a weekly chart that the correction is finding support and "should" move higher in the short run. -
10-year Note COT Chart November 23, 2018 - The COT report (Commitment of Traders) issued by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) has been consistently reporting an overcrowded bearish trade in Treasuries. If it fully unwinds, the 10-year note market could get a boost. -
10-year Note Futures Weekly Chart November 23rd, 2018 - Volatility from the energy futures markets (crude oil and natural gas) as bled into the stock market. We think it will soon bleed into the Treasury market; if so, the 10-year note should move higher.
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Crude Oil Implied Volatility November 23, 2018 - Implied volatility is the premium option traders build into option prices in anticipation of future volatility. It can be thought of as a type of fear index, similar to the VIX used to value S&P 500 volatility. -
Natural Gas Implied Volatility November 23, 2018 - Natural gas futures experienced a massive influx of volatility. Accordingly, the associated options exploded in value as the market's implied volatility soared from 30 to nearly 130. -
Weekly Crude Oil Futures Support November 23, 2018 - Crude oil futures are testing support near .00. There is a good chance the selling dries up here (at least temporarily). This is in line with our analysis featured on Mad Money on CNBC last week by Jim Cramer. -
ES Futures Chart October 25, 2018 - The E-mini S&P 500 is facing a confluence of support levels between 2630 and 2550. Will we get a year end rally?
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Euro currency futures weekly chart October 25, 2018 - The weekly chart of the euro futures contract suggests sharp support looming. -
Euro currency future October 25th, 2018 - The financial markets have grown comfortable with a weak euro and a strong US dollar, but we think that trend will soon reverse course. -
US Dollar Index Futures October 25 - The US dollar has enjoyed a low volatility rally, but the chart suggests the upside could be limited from here. -
Weekly Crude Oil Futures Chart October 3, 2018 - Taking a step back to look at the weekly chart of oil exposes a multi-year trading channel posing sharp resistance near the .00 area. A breakout would likely lead to a quick run toward .00 but we aren’t convinced that will be the case. In fact, the seasonal high in oil often takes place in early-to-mid-October, leaving the current rally vulnerable to both profit taking and annual cycle pressures. Instead, we believe a return to, at minimum, the mid-to-high-.00s is on the horizon.
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Daily Crude Oil Futures Chart October 3, 2018 - The daily chart of oil reveals overheated technical oscillators; for instance, the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the Williams %R, and Slow Stochastics are all hovering in overbought territory, which tends to promote a rally reversal if market participants are given reason to lock in profits. We have seen the RSI on a daily chart exceed a reading of 70 on two other occasions, both of which triggered sizable corrections. -
Crude Oil Seasonal Pattern October 3, 2018 - According to seasonal charts offered by MRCI (Moore Research Center Inc.) 30 years’ worth of crude oil price data points toward a price peak in the fall. Thus, as exciting as the oil rally might be now is probably not the time to be “all-in†with bullish positions. -
BCI Monthly Futures Chart The Bloomberg Commodity index is within roughly 128,000 from the all-time low but ,500 from the all-time high. The upside potential seems to outweigh the downside risk. It is possible to trade this futures contract with a margin of less than 0 with our brokerage. -
Crude oil technical analysis July 18 July 2018 - The crude oil futures market isn't as chaotic as it might feel near the highs and lows. In face, it is trading in a well-defined technical trading range.
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Bitcoin on Coinbase April 23 - Bitcoin's relief rally could be short-lived. Heavy resistance above. -
dx-daily-chart April 23 - The US dollar index futures contract traded on the ICE exchange appears to have broken out to the upside. -
Gold Futures Technical Analysis is Bearish April 23 - Gold futures couldn't find a way to rally in the midst of favorable fundamental worries (trade war concerns and a stock market correction). The path of least resistance is likely lower. -
Oil Futures vs. DX Futures March 5, 2018 - Dollar index futures play a big roll in the direction of crude oil prices.
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Crude oil fundamentals March 8, 2018 - Fundamental analysis is difficult to apply to commodity markets in real time. Anybody trading according to crude oil market fundamentals might have bought the highs and sold the lows. The market has been proactive in pricing in fundamental changes. -
Crude oil futures Technical Analysis March 5, 2018 - Crude oil futures have been trading in an uptrend channel in recent years. We expect this to continue. Thus, the high-s could be seen again, followed by the low-s. -
Crude Oil Futures Seasonality March 5, 2018 - Crude oil futures follow a distinct seasonal pattern around annual cycles such as the summer driving season. -
Crude Oil COT Chart March 5, 2018 - Crude oil futures traders are massively long the market. This doesn't guarantee an immediate sell-off, but it creates a substantial headwind and will accelerate losses if they occur.
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Weekly E-mini S&P 500 Futures February 28, 2018 - The E-mini S&P 500 broke out of a multi-year trading channel in January, only to fall back into the technical pattern in February. The size and velocity of the drop was likely due to the fact that it started at prices that shouldn't have been seen in a more "normal" market. -
CBOE VIX History February 28, 2018 - The VIX tends to move lower slowly and consistently, but move higher dramatically and erratically. Being short volatility works nearly all of the time, but when it doesn't work it can quickly wipe out a trading account. -
Daily E-mini S&P 500 Futures February 28th, 2018 - While most argued the stock market was broken in early February, we argue it was just as "broken" in January. Stock index futures were forced to unsustainable prices, and gravity eventually took hold. -
Natural Gas Futures Feb 2018 February 16 - Natural gas prices have fallen sharply from early 2018 highs; although oscillators are classified as oversold they will likely become more so before significant buyers will step in. Considering trendline support dating back to 2015 and the expectation of a pack of sell stop loss orders beneath the December low, it seems probable natural gas futures will make their way into the .40s. Nevertheless, sharp support lies near .41 which we believe will be critical and has a high probability of supporting a price reversal.
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Natural Gas COT Report 2018 February 16 - Our friends at MRCI Inc. (Moore Research Center, Incorporated) compile seasonal stats on the commodity markets for a living. Their data dating back 27 years suggests that natural gas futures have been prone to posting some sort of market low in late February to early March. With current futures prices in the doldrums, this appears to be a particularly interesting pattern. A looming seasonal bottom, in combination with cheap prices and nearby technical support, could offer the bulls an opportunity for relatively comfortable speculation. -
T-Bond Futures Chart February 16 - Treasuries are testing trendline support (again). This pattern is becoming painful for the bulls (speaking from experience). That said, we've noticed the latest COT report suggests speculators are holding one of the largest net short positions in the 10-year note seen in over a decade. We have to wonder, is there anybody left to sell? -
E-mini S&P 500 Futures Chart Those that follow Fibonacci retracement theory will tell you that the S&P has retraced roughly 60% of its initial drop. Specifically, the market closed below 2750ish which is the 62% Fib retracement resistance. As mentioned above, several green bars doesn't necessarily make a bull market. There is still plenty of room for volatility, bullish trades should be taking off risk. -
Oil Futures COT Report November 8, 2017 - The Commitments of Traders report by the Commodity Futures Trading Association suggests oil speculators might already be "too long" based on historical standards.
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Crude Oil Seasonal Patterns by MRCI November 8, 2017 - Crude oil futures generally trade lower from mid-to-late-October through December. Thus, the rally could be facing headwinds. -
Daily Crude Oil Futures Chart November 7th, 2017 - Crude oil futures are extremely overbought and is approaching resistance areas. Most of the buying has likely already occurred. -
Crude Oil Hedge Fund Blow Up? November 8, 2017 - Crude oil futures jumped and then collapsed over 128.50 per barrel in an hour on what was otherwise low volatility trading. It feels like an account blow-up! -
US Dollar Index Futures vs PowerShares Commodity Fund September 28, 2017 - The commodity markets have gotten a boost from a declining dollar but if the currency market turns the corner, the opposite will occur.
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Dollar Index Futures Weekly Chart September 28 - The US dollar index futures contract traded on the ICE exchange has finally shown signs of life. A weekly chart reveals the trendline is intact. -
Copper Futures Weekly View September 21, 2017 - The weekly copper chart shows the "big picture". Although the recent pullback has been eye-opening, it is clear that there could be further selling. -
Copper Futures Bearish Seasonals September 21, 2017 - Copper futures generally trade weaker from mid-September through the fall. Thus, lofty copper price and bearish seasonals suggest the odds are in favor of weaker trade. -
Dollar Index Futures Bottoming? September 21, 2017 - The US dollar index traded on the ICE futures exchange has been under pressure all year. However, currency market sentiment can change quickly and we suspect the dollar will find buyers again by the end of the year.
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Copper Futures COT Report September 21, 2017 - Copper futures miraculously rallied above .00 but the lack of fundamentals and help from a weaker dollar has left air pockets. A return to .50 is not out of the question as overly long speculators liquidate positions. -
WTI Crude Oil Futures Chart September 8, 2017 - WTI crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX division of the CME Group has gotten a hurricane boost, but it probably won't last. The chart and seasonals are working against it. -
Crude Oil Futures MRCI Seasonality September 8, 2017 - December crude oil futures have a strong tendency to trade weaker from early September through early November. Further, MRCI suggests a sell signal on September 8th through the 21st has been a high probability trade over the last 15 years. -
Dollar index futures bottoming? September 8, 2017 - The US dollar has been in the dumps, despite what many believed would be the case coming into 2017. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine the dollar getting weaker from these levels.
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US Dollar Futures on Ice Exchange August 1, 2017 - The dollar index has been in perpetual free fall but we are nearing areas that have acted as reversal points historically. We could be closer to a dollar bottom than many think. If so, it will put downside pressure on commodities such as copper and crude oil. -
Copper Futures Market August 1, 2019 - Copper futures are on a tear but the bulls could soon shed a tear. The market is technically overbought and resistance is looming. Unfortunately, the copper options market is illiquid so buying cheap puts might be the best way to play it. -
Crude oil speculators too long? August 1, 2017 - Crude oil speculators have had a bad habit of going long on peaks and liquidating on the trough. The might be getting too long again, perhaps the buying will dry up soon. -
Crude Oil Futures Toppy? August 1, 2017 - Crude oil futures have been soaring in recent weeks but the rally might soon sour. Oil hasn't been able to sustain a trend thus far in 2017 and overhead resistance will work against the bullish oil speculators.
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Gold Futures Technical Analysis July 14, 2017 - Gold prices have held support near 128,205 and are making their way toward resistance at 128,248. If this level breaks, 128,300 is in play again. -
Gold Futures and US Dollar Correlation July 14 2017 - The US dollar and gold futures have almost always been negatively correlated. Yet, they have recently been positively correlated. This can't last. -
Gold Futures Technical Analysis July 14 - Gold prices have held support near 128,205 and are making their way toward resistance at 128,248. If this level breaks, 128,300 is in play again. -
Copper Daily Futures Chart July 4 - The path of least resistance is likely lower for copper futures. .50 could be in the cards.
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Large Speculators in Oil have been Wrong July 4, 2017 - Large speculators in crude oil have been painfully wrong this year. They have been getting longer into tops and liquidating longs into bottoms. -
Crude oil weekly chart update July 4 2017 - After a retest of trading range resistance near , oil prices will likely retreat to fresh lows. -
Crude Oil Futures Whipsaw July 4 - Crude oil futures have managed to whipsaw both the bulls and the bears. Ironically, the smart money has been habitually on the wrong foot. Prices should make their way up to the / area but will likely reverse from there. -
Copper Futures Weekly Chart July 4 - Technical analysis in the copper futures market is pointing toward a near-term decline. Trendline resistance appears to be holding.
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Soy Meal Covered Call Strategy June 27, 2017 - Covered call strategies are popular among stock traders but perhaps they should be with futures traders. It is often possible to buy a futures contract and sell a close-to-the-money call with attractive odds and profit potential. -
Soybean Meal Futures COT Chart June 27, 2017 - Speculators typically come into July with a net long position in soy meal futures. Accordingly, the price of meal generally relaxes as they liquidate. This year specs are coming into July with a neutral to bearish position. Will prices rise? -
Canadian Dollar Futures June 9, 2017 - Speculators are holding a massive net short position betting against the Canadian Dollar. However, sometimes when everyone thinks a market will go one way, it goes the other. Can the loonie breakout to the upside? -
Cattle Futures Chart June 9, 2017 - Cattle futures speculators are the longest they have been in years, or perhaps ever. It is unlikely the market will be able to find enough buyers to keep the bull trend intact.
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August Soybean Futures Covered Call Strategy May 31, 2017 - Soybean futures tend to see a seasonal bump and are oversold. It might make sense to establish a bullish, but well-hedged position. -
Time to sell call options on hog futures? May 31, 2017 - Lean hog futures have had an impressive run, but they could be running out of steam. Call options seemed overpriced. *Unlimited risk in option selling. -
August Soybean Seasonal Chart May 31, 2017 - Soybean futures generally see higher prices in June. Will growing conditions be too dry, too wet, or too hot? -
September Corn Futures Market May 19, 2017 - September corn futures are in a slumber, but we think it could be the calm before the storm. We'd like to see a weather scare or two in the coming months.
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Euro Currency Futures Chart May 19, 2017 - Euro currency futures are on a tear, but trendline resistance should hold the rally in check. -
Euro Currency Futures Seasonal Patterns May 19, 2017 - Euro currency futures often lose steam in early May. With prices bumping against technical resistance, we suspect the rally will suffer. -
WTI Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart May 5, 2017 - WTI Crude oil futures appear to be putting in a key reversal, but we suspect another round of selling could bring the June futures contract closer to per barrel. -
COT Report says Crude OIl Futures Specs are Long May 5, 2017 - Crude oil futures speculators have been aggressively and relentlessly long WTI oil futures. Although they have liquidated part of their holdings, they likely aren't done.
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Crude Oil Futures Summer Seasonals May 5, 2017 - Crude oil futures generally trade sideways throughout May, June and part of July. Thus, we wouldn't expect any significant up-moves in energy futures. -
Lean Hog Futures Chart April 20, 2017 - Lean hog futures are falling into oversold territory and could be approaching long-term support areas. Aggressive traders might consider selling puts. *There is unlimited risk in option selling. -
Lean Hog Futures Seasonal Tendency April 20, 2017 - Lean hog futures have struggled in recent weeks but according to seasonal data by MRCI, they tend to find some sort of support in mid-to-late-April. -
Gold futures facing technical resistance April 12, 2017 - Gold futures have been roaring higher but seasonal support is drying up and technical resistance is looming. Gold will likely struggle to break the 128,290/128,300 area.
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Soymeal Futures Chart April 5, 2017 - Soybean meal futures have suffered sharp losses but bullish seasonals, technical support , and the weaker US dollar should keep a floor under pricing near 0 ot 0. -
July Soybean Futures Seasonal Pattern April 5, 2017 - July soybean meal futures traded on the CBOT division of the CME group generally move higher throughout the spring. -
May CBOT Corn Futures March 28, 2017 - Corn futures haven't been in favor despite weakening in the US dollar. However, the market hasn't traded under .40 for any sustainable amount of time in years. Perhaps the bulls should be looking for opportunities. -
July CBOT Wheat Futures March 28, 2017 - The wheat futures traded on the CBOT division of the CME Group have been in a slump, but one has to wonder if there is anyone left to sell. We see support looming on the chart.
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Euro Currency Futures 15 Year Seasonal Pattern March 23, 2017 - According to MRCI, the euro currency futures market tends to move higher in March and April. -
Euro Currency Futures COT Report March 23, 2017 - According to the CFTC's COT Report, speculators have unwound their massive short position and are currently relatively neutral. -
Daily Chart of Euro Currency Futures March 23, 2017 - The daily chart corroborates the conclusions found on the weekly chart of the euro currency futures contract; the euro could be finding a bottom. -
Weekly Euro Futures Chart March 23, 2017 - Euro currency futures fell 25% in 2014/2015 but has since flat-lined. We suspect the European currency is putting in some sort of long-term base.
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Crude Oil Futures Chart March 9, 2017 - Crude oil futures have broken support and could be headed for the long-term trendline. If so, .51 would be in play. If fundamentals continue to erode, isn't out of the question. -
WTI Crude Oil Futures COT Report March 9, 2017 - Crude oil futures have taken a nasty fall in recent days but the selling probably isn't over. Ahead of this drop speculators were holding one of the largest net long positions EVER! -
ES Futures Price to Earnings Ratio March 7, 2017 - The bull run has been miraculous but either earnings need to catch up with the market or the market will have to come down to meet earnings. -
Fed Funds Futures Contracts March 7, 2017 - The Federal Reserve will meet next week to set the new Fed Funds interest rate. The markets are already pricing in at least two and as many as four rate hikes by the December meeting.
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Natural Gas Seasonal Chart by MRCI February 16, 2017 - According to MRCI, Moore Research Center Inc., natural gas futures have a strong tendency to bottom in late-February to early-March. -
Natural Gas Commitment of Traders Report February 16, 2017 - The CFTC's COT report offers traders insight on who is long what in regards to the commodity markets. According to the Commitments of Traders Report, large speculators are relatively neutral in natural gas futures. -
Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis February 16, 2017 - Natural gas futures are at a crossroads. Trendline support is near, but a price gap and recent lows could act as a magnet for prices. -
Copper Futures Commitments of Traders Report February 10, 2017 - Copper futures speculators are holding historically large net long positions in the copper futures market according to the latest COT report issued by the CFTC.
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Copper Futures Technically Overbought February 10, 2017 - Copper futures are on a tear on news of a labor strike in the largest producing mine in the world. However, the market might be overpricing the impact. Is this a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trade? -
T-Note Commitments of Traders Report February 2, 2017 - Treasury speculators are holding one of the largest net short positions in history. Should they decide to unwind the bearish position, we could see a massive rally in interest rate securities (decline in yields). -
10-Year Note Seasonal Pattern February 2, 2017 - According to MRCI (Moore Research Inc) the 10-year note futures contract has had a tendency to rally from February through May. This chart is based on 30 years worth of price data. -
TLT Treasury ETF Chart Feb. 1, 2017 - We often look at the TLT chart for long-term charting of the Treasury markets (because futures contracts expire, charting the big picture can be challenging). According to our analysis, bonds and notes could be putting in a double bottom.
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Buy Crude Oil Strangles January 20, 2017 - Aggressive speculators might be interested in buying option strangles. In short, this involves buying a call option and a put option in the same expiration month. Because more options than not expire worthless, it is generally a good idea to shop for low-priced options which also pose low risk to traders. -
Crude Oil Seasonal Patterns going into 2017 January 20, 2017 - One of the most reliable seasonal patterns over the years has been the strength of crude oil beginning in the latter part of the first quarter and extending through most of the third quarter. This doesn’t mean that making money will be as easy as going long crude oil futures in January and selling in October, but it does mean that it might be a good idea to consider getting bullish on any large dip early in the year and getting bearish on any large rally later in the year. -
Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis January 20, 2017 - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is mid-range without any hints at momentum and the price of crude oil futures are waffling within a trading range that dates back to the 2015 lows. In short, we cannot see any edge that would give directional traders anything more than a 50/50 proposition. -
Crude Oil Options Implied Volatility January 20, 2017 - Option Volatility in crude oil is low. This is a better time to be buying crude oil options on futures than it is to sell them.
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Crude Oil Futures COT Report Jan 2017 January 20, 2017 - It might be hard to believe, but crude oil futures speculators are holding the largest net long position we’ve seen since oil crashed from just over 0 per barrel and eventually landing in the high s. In other words, the last time speculators were this aggressively long, the price of oil dropped roughly 60% in six months! This tells us that the upside could be limited for now. -
NASDAQ Futures and QQQ Chart January 11, 2017 - NASDAQ futures (and the QQQ ETF) have been leading the stock market higher. However, we question whether it is sustainable. Technical oscillators are overbought. -
NASDAQ Futures Contract Seasonal Pattern January 11 - The seasonal peak in the NASDAQ futures market generally takes place on, or around, January 11th. Will it happen again this year? Lofty prices seem to increase the odds of a pullback in the short-run. -
e-mini S&P Put Options January 6, 2017 - There are no guarantees equity market volatility, and therefore implied volatility, will increase but the odds are in favor of it. Further, put options written on the S&P are at historically low levels. Now might be the time to consider buying cheap S&P put options. *Substantial risk of loss.
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ES Futures Options Implied Volatility January 6, 2017- We've seen the IV in the e-mini S&P 500 options at 12.00 or below a mere six times in the last decade. This area marked a bottom on four of those occasions, and the other two reversed only moderately lower. -
Dollar vs. Stock Market The dollar and the equity markets have rallied together. Not only that, but the dollar has reached a new 14-year high at a time in which the S&P 500 is at an all-time high! Clearly, the negative correlation between these two asset classes has shifted. -
Gold Futures Post-Election November 29, 2016 - The lack of luster in gold futures could be temporary. The same event that had gold buyers active in October, sent them selling in November. We suspect they will be back. -
Soybean Futures Daily Chart November 3, 2016 - Soybean futures prices seem destined to retest the .30 area but if so, it could be an attractive place for the bulls to get interested in the grain futures markets.
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January Soybean Futures Seasonal Tendencies November 3, 2016 - The soybean futures have seen strong demand from China causing them to lead the grain markets higher. Seasonal tendencies in soybeans suggest the path of least resistance should be higher through December. -
Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart 2016 October 14, 2016 - The weekly natural gas futures chart paints an interesting picture. Seasonal analysis and technical analysis suggest the rally could be growing tired, but the 2014 highs are a painful reminder of winter weather risk. -
Natural Gas Futures Winter Seasonal Chart October 14, 2016 - Natural gas futures tend to rally into mid-October but the drying often dries up going into November and December. -
Daily Crude Oil Futures Chart Oct. 2016 October 6, 2016 - In addition to toppy seasonals and a COT report reading, the chart of the December crude oil futures contract shows several strong resistance levels nearby.
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Crude Oil COT Report October 2016 October 6, 2016 - The CFTC's Commitments of Traders Report suggests that crude oil speculators have already allocated most of their trading capital to long positions. Perhaps they won't have the buying power necessary to extend the rally. -
Crude Oil Futures Seasonal Pattern by MRCI October 6, 2016 - Crude oil futures are flying high, but historical seasonal patterns suggest the market is most likely to top out in mid-October. Can the oil rally survive seasonal tendencies? -
Japanese Yen Futures Market September 29, 2016 - The Japanese Yen is seen as a safe haven currency. Should Donald Trump continue to gain ground in election polls, the Yen could be bid higher as currency traders seek safety. -
Trump and the US Dollar September 19, 2016 - Donald Trump's trade policy and a desire for higher interest rates is a relatively mixed bag of fundamentals for the US currency. However, uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency could trigger short-term selling if he continues to improve in the election polls.
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Gold Futures Breakout? A few weeks ago we wrote a piece on gold for TheStreet.com; in short, the seasonality of gold is supportive and so is the technical landscape. In our view, a break above 128,380 should pave the way for a run into the mid-128,400 price range. -
Gold futures ahead of Indian wedding season September 15, 2016 - Despite the fact that gold futures speculators are holding a historically aggressive net long position, there might be reason for gold prices to firm up in the coming months. One of them is Indian wedding season demand (seasonals), and the other is a promising continuation pattern on the price chart. -
Soybean Futures Chart September 15, 2016- The January soybean futures contract appears to be putting in a triple bottom. If support fails, a run to the .15ish area is possible but we feel like the downside is limited to this area. We like the idea of buying cheap call options (limited risk). -
Soybean options implied volatility is LOW September 15, 2016 - The soybean market has fallen in sympathy to corn and wheat, leaving prices depressed and implied volatility at highly discounted levels. As a result, call options are cheaply priced!
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e-mini S&P 500 futures testing support? September 15, 2016 - We have a feeling the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract will experience a long squeeze going into expiration of the September contract. This is similar to a short squeeze, but it forces out the bullish traders as prices collapse. If so, we could see 2070 on the December contract. -
Corn Futures Chart August 31, 2016 - Corn futures have fallen precipitously following a short-lived summer rally. However, prices appear to be at a crossroads. Can we get an ag futures rally? -
Wheat Futures Chart August 31, 2016 - Wheat futures have been trading lower in sympathy to corn but the market is also facing supply headwinds. Nevertheless, prices appear to be oversold and due for a bounce. -
e-mini S&P 500 futures Chart August 25, 2016 - This feels like it could be the calm before the storm. The ES futures contract hasn't had a 1% move in over 30 days and the VIX is trolling historic lows. The chart points out resistance near 2215ish.
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VIX Volatility Index Futures Chart August 25, 2016 - The weekly chart of the VIX reveals that slow stochastics have fallen into oversold territory and are now trending higher. This suggests there could be a trend change. Also, the VIX tends to bottom near current levels. Will market volatility return? -
Crude Oil Futures Update August 16 , 2016 - WTI crude oil futures could be at the tail end of a short squeeze. Downtrend resistance falls near per barrel. Will we see a reversal? -
e-mini S&P 500 overbought? August 15, 2016 - The e-mini S&P 500 appears to have grown fiercely overbought. Technical oscillators such as the RSI and Williams %R are suggesting the upside might be limited. -
Commitments of Traders Report Crude Oil July 26, 2016 - The CFTC's COT Report suggests large speculator liquidation has caused a 20% decline in crude oil futures. History suggests there could be more to come.
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crude-oil-futures-daily-chart July 26, 2016 - Crude oil futures are technically oversold, but bearish seasonals, speculator liquidation, and momentum will likely keep prices under pressure in the short-term. -
VIX Futures Daily Chart July 20th, 2016 - VIX futures trade at a premium to the cash market volatility index, but they are still at highly discounted levels. The VIX futures market rarely drops below 15.00. -
CBOE VIX Seasonal Pattern July 20th, 2016 - The CBOE's cash market VIX volatility index tends to find annual lows in July and highs in October. -
cash-market-cboe-vix-chart July 20th, 2016 - The CBOE's volatility index known simply as the VIX is hovering near historically cheap levels. Is this the calm before the storm?
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Crude Oil Futures Correlation with the Stock Market The relationship between crude oil and the stock market has changed. It can no longer be assumed that a minor dip in oil will pull stocks down, and vice versa. However, as many traders have learned this year, correlations are dynamic. -
Fed Funds Futures after Brexit July 12, 2016 - The Fed Funds futures market overreacted to Brexit. At its extreme, market participants were pricing in the possibility of a rate cut! However, the Fed still claims one to two rates cuts, if they stick to their guns, the Fed Funds futures contracts should be trading much lower. -
Wheat futures look cheap ahead of USDA report June 30, 2016 - Wheat futures are trading at a six-year low, with two major support levels looming at .40 and again at .30. Will the USDA report turn this market around? -
10-year Note Futures June 27, 2016 - An unexpected Brexit vote outcome lured investors into safety assets such as gold and Treasuries, but we suspect the tides will turn sooner rather than later. The 10-year note is likely overbought, and overvalued at these levels.
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British Pound Brexit Woes June 27 2016 - The British Pound has been in freefall since Thursday's referendum vote to leave the EU. Those looking to speculate in the GPB, might find it most useful to use the e-micro futures contract rather than the full-sized version to keep risks manageable. -
Fed Funds futures are pricing in a rate cut! June 27 - The Brexit vote chaos caused the Fed Funds futures traders to nearly wipe out any expectations of a rate hike by December. Instead, they are partially pricing in a rate cut! We are adding to our bearish positions. -
Natural Gas Futures tend to make mid-June Highs June 23, 2016 - Natural gas futures have a strong tendency to make a seasonal mid-June high. Further, technical oscillators are overheated. Correction? -
COT Report suggests Specs are too long June 23, 2016 - The CFTC's Commitments of Traders Report is clear, speculators have become "too long" in gold futures. if the Brexit chaos comes to a head, gold will likely sell-off as speculators liquidate positions.
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Gold futures should go into correction in the short-run June 23, 2016 - Gold futures have been a beneficiary of Brexit vote anxiety, but the specs have likely gotten too long. We suspect a pullback to the 128,200 could be in the cards. -
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Natural Gas Seasonal Chart June 23 - Seasonals are calling for weakness in natural gas in the coming months. Accordingly, bulls should be protecting profits and bears might look for countertrend swing trades. -
Natural Gas Daily Chart Natural gas has rallied 60% in a few months, but the chart is suggesting some headwinds could come into play sooner, rather than later. We see the first level of technical resistance near .83.
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US Dollar Index Futures Daily Chart The greenback is on an upswing, but trendline resistance suggests the rally could be short-lived. Look for resistance near 96.30. -
Weekly Dollar Index Futures Contract The dollar index futures contract broke long-term support earlier this month, but it resulted in a bear trap as shorts covered positions. We believe the buying will run out of steam sooner rather than later. -
Fed Funds Futures Despite the fact that the FOMC has only raised interest rates once since 2008, the Fed Funds futures rates fluctuate on a daily basis based on expectations of the next move. In my opinion, there appears to be a low risk opportunity in getting bearish Fed Funds futures with expiration dates extending into late 2016 to early 2017. Keep in mind, the more distant the expiration, the higher the volatility will be. Nevertheless, these contracts move relatively slow and are margined low at less than 128,000. -
WTI Crude Oil COT Report May 5, 2016- According to the CFTC's COT Report, large speculators have accumulated a net long position of roughly 340,000 contracts. In the past, such a large position has been prone to liquidation (and a crude oil price correction).
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WTI Crude OIl Futures Daily Chart May 5, 2016 - WTI crude oil futures have enjoyed a massive rally from the February lows, but technical analysis suggests prices will be confined within the current trading channel. If so, the rally should be capped near , and any selling should find a floor in the low s. -
Gold Futures are on a Tear! April 28, 2016, Gold futures are proving the precious metals are in a bull market. The chart depicts a wedge pattern, which as generally assumed to be a continuation pattern in technical analysis. Accordingly, we are projecting another round of buying that could bring the price of gold to 128,340. -
Live Cattle might find support April 20, 2016 - Live cattle futures might finally find their saving grace, summer barbeque season. The seasonal low in cattle tends to occur on, or around, April 20th. Also, the chart seems to suggest support is looming. Reversal? -
Corn Futures COT Chart April 14th, 2016 - According to the CFTC's COT Report, as of last week large speculators were holding the largest net short corn position in decades. Short covering this position could potentially send corn well above .00.
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25-Year Corn Futures Chart April 14, 2016 - Corn futures have been in a dismal bear market for years. However, a long-term chart of corn suggest a bull market could be around the corner. -
The Crude Oil Rally probably isn't over yet April 8, 2016 - Oil futures prices have nearly doubled since their January lows, but the bull market probably has another leg to go. Technical oscillators are suggesting positive momentum, and the trading channel won't pose resistance until prices reach the mid-to-high s. -
Euro currency futures on the verge of a breakout? March 31, 2016 - RSI and MACD plotted on a weekly euro chart, are decisively bullish. However, overhead resistance near 128.1490, and again near 128.1730 pose a threat to the bull camp. Nevertheless, we believe the dye is case for a breakout! -
U.S. Dollar Index hitting the skids? March 31, 2016 - The dollar index has been trading in a messy, but valid, trading range since late 2015. If the sideways “trend†continues, we should be looking at a decline toward 93.00 in the index. However, if prices break below 93.00, which we believe is a probable scenario, we could see a significant repricing. After all, momentum indicators, such as RSI are trending lower, and bullish dollar sentiment appears to be waning.
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Dow Jones Commodity Index near Breakout March 17, 2016 - The Dow Jones Commodity Index is relatively diversified. The lack of crude oil overweighting, has it lagging that of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, but it is on the verge of a technical breakout! -
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Breakout March 17, 2016 - According to the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, the dogs of the market might soon be the stars. Technical breakout? -
Euro currency futures post-ECB meeting March 17th, 2016 - Despite massive temporary volatility, the euro currency has been in a trading range for months. However, we believe the bulls have an edge for the remainder of 2017 due to sharp rejections of bears near support levels. -
Copper Commitment of Traders Report February 26th, 2016 - Large commodity speculators are holding record net short position in copper futures according to the CFTC's COT Report. The last time we saw this, copper rallied 45 cents.
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Copper Futures ready to Rally? February 26th, 2016 - Copper prices have been on a steady decline or quite some times, but if other commodities (gold and crude oil) continue to trade firmly, copper could follow. A break above .15/.20 could open the door to .50. -
Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig Count February 12, 2016 - U.S. shale oil producers seem to finally be capitulating. Domestic rig counts have fallen under 500. Two years ago they were closer to 1,700, and last year near 1,200. -
Decoupling of stocks and crude oil futures February 5, 2016 - As WTI crude oil futures dropped below per barrel, the correlation between stocks and oil skyrocketed. They were nearly perfectly correlated during in late January! -
WTI Crude Oil Futures Monthly Chart February 5, 2016 - Crude oil futures have suffered significantly, leading many to call for prices to dip as low as per barrel. However, we believe that is unlikely. The mid-to-high s will probably hold, but if we are wrong, the next stopping point would b e !
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Monthly S&P 500 Futures Chart February 5, 2016 - Despite all of the chaos and turmoil, the e-mini S&P futures chart is merely neutral. It isn't disastrous, nor is it fantastic. There is no reason to hold a strong bias either way! -
Stock Market and WTI Oil Futures Correlation February 5, 2016 - In this weekly chart of the correlation between stock index futures and crude oil futures, it is clear the typical relationship is rather loose. Yet, when oil gets heated, the correlation becomes nearly perfect (meaning both markets move together). -
Crude Oil Futures Seasonal Pattern January 25, 2016 - WTI crude oil futures have a strong tendency to move higher in the month of February as refineries begin preparing for the spring and summer driving seasons. Can this be the saving grace for commodities, and the equity market? -
Weekly TLT Chart to Judge Treasury Futures January 20, 2016 - Although we trade bond and note futures, the TLT ETF can be a good tool to chart the overall direction of the Treasury market. According to the TLT chart, the upside might be limited.
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Treasury Futures Seasonal Pattern January 20, 2016 - Treasury futures tend to trade with a bearish bias in the month of January. However, this year has seen counter-seasonal trade. Nevertheless, if the market eventually conforms to a normal pattern the buying in T-bond and T-note futures should be temporary. -
Goldman Sach's Commodity Index (GSCI) January 7, 2016 - Oversupply, lack of demand, and the stronger dollar, all took a toll on the commodity markets. But with the Goldman Sach's Commodity Index trading at levels not seen since the financial crisis, it seems the bear might have run its course. -
CME emini S&P 500 futures January 7, 2015 - The ES futures contract has been in a virtual free-fall in sympathy to Chinese circuit breaker trading halts. However, fundamentals in the U.S. haven't changed despite the plunge. Perhaps tomorrow's employment numbers and earnings season will prop the e-mini S&P 500 futures back up! -
WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart December 11, 2015 - Crude oil futures are seeing divergence on a weekly chart (the RSI is making higher lows, but the market is making lower lows). Also, the wedge pattern suggests technical chart support lies near per barrel.
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Euro Currency Futures Monthly Chart December 11, 2015 - Euro futures have consistently found support after declining anywhere from 30 to 37 cents, with the average being 34. Thus, it is possible the lows have been seen in the euro market. -
Crude Oil Commitments of Traders Report by the CFTC December 11, 2015 - Crude oil speculators have sold most of their long futures. Each time they have liquidated this much, the market has found support. -
The euro and crude oil futures tend to bottom together December 11, 2015 - The euro currency futures contract tends to reverse trends in tandem with West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The Euro generally leads the charge, was this week's currency reversal telling us something about crude oil futures? -
The Mother of All Short Squeezes December 4, 2015 - Speculators were massively short the euro currency in the futures markets ahead of the ECB meeting; the result was devastating. A massive short squeeze forced the bears out of their over-crowded trade. There is no free lunch in the markets!
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Euro Currency Futures and the COT Report December 4, 2015 - This week will be one to remember for euro currency futures traders. December 3rd, marked the second biggest one-day move in the Euro. The first? It was in March of 2009 during the financial crisis. In both cases, speculators were simply too short, and had forced priced to artificially low prices. Eventually, the tables turned. -
Corn Seasonal Tendencies are Bullish November 23, 2015 - Corn futures prices generally find support at some point in October. This is known as the harvest lows, and represents the point in time that supplies are abundant. However, corn tends to firm up from there, finding reason to rally into February. -
Euro Currency Futures Chart November 6, 2015 - The Euro has been beaten down on prospects for a U.S. interest rate hike, more stimulus in Europe, and a blockbuster U.S. jobs number. However, seasonals and technicals suggest the lows could be looming. -
Natural Gas Futures are Oversold October 29, 2015 - In the commodity markets, one man's pain is another man's opportunity. Natural gas prices fell sharply on speculator and fund liquidation, but the market could be due for a nice bounce.
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Natural Gas Futures are near technical support October 21 - NG futures traded on NYMEX have been on a steady down-trend, but support looms and technical oscillators are oversold. Can we get a bounce out of here? -
Gold to Silver Ratio Update October 7, 2015: The gold-to-silver ratio has topped out at 80 on each occasion in the last two decades. Thus, we suspect the recent test of 77 marked the inflection point of the move, and perhaps a significant bottom in the precious metals. -
Live Cattle Futures Trend Reversal? October 6, 2015- Cattle futures have tumbled precipitously. In fact, I don't recall such a decline ever occurring (at least not without the help of a mad cow scare). Further, seasonal factors typically call for sideways to higher trade for most of October and technical indicators are suggesting prices are massively oversold. -
Commitments of Traders Report - E-mini S&P 500 September 24 - The most recent COT Report was released on Friday September 19th, and accounts for data acquired on September 15th. At the time, small speculators were estimated to be holding a net long position in excess of 400,000. This is the first time we’ve seen this group get this aggressive on the long side of the market (ever). At the same time, the large speculator had amassed the largest net short position we’ve seen this group take since 2011; however, with a net short holding of roughly 250,000 contracts large speculators appear to still have capital available to add considerably to their position.
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If you are going to sell options, place the strike prices beyond technical support and resistance! September 15, 2015 - Blindly selling options on futures is a bad idea. Short option traders should actively monitor technical support and resistance; the strike price of any sold option should be beyond charting barriers. -
Futures market volatility and option selling September 15, 2015 - Too many commodity option sellers overlook the importance of monitoring volatility. A euro currency option strangle seller could have constructed a short strangle in late August FOR THE SAME PREMIUM with a profit zone that is 200 ticks wider than would have been possible in the previous week (before the spike in market volatility). -
30-Year Bond Futures Contract September 11, 2015 - The average speculator assumes that a Federal Reserve interest rate hike will automatically translate into lower Treasury futures prices, but that isn't necessarily a safe assumption. Futures markets typically price in future policy changes in advance (as they are telegraphed). -
ES Futures Chart ahead of the Federal Reserve September 11, 2015 - Stock index futures traders are focused on next week's historical Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. The chart is forming a wedge that could be resolved by the Fed. We suspect a downside break out in the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is most likely.
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WTI Crude Oil Futures COT Report September 2, 2015 - According to the Commitments of Traders Report issued by the CFTC, crude oil futures speculators liquidated 40% of their holdings on the recent slide. This should support prices because traders will likely want to put money back into the commodity markets. -
Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart August 28 - Crude oil futures have rallied sharply on news of tension in the MIddle East, but the chart was telling the story all along. Technical support at held like a charm. -
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index August 27 - A weekly chart of the GSCI depicts just how technically oversold the commodity complex has become. However, the chart could be suggesting a double bottom is in the works. The best trades in commodities will likely be from the long side of the futures markets. -
Australian Dollar Currency Futures August 27 - The AUD/USD currency pair, which is highly dependent on the commodity markets, has been dramatically devalued on concerns of weak demand for commodities out of China. However, if China firms up, so will commodities and the Aussie Dollar futures market.
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Chinese Stock ETF August 27 - Panic in the Chinese stock market has sent rippled throughout the commodity futures markets, but market stabilization might be right around the corner. -
S&P 500 Futures Mini-Crash August 24 - The e-mini S&P 500 futures when locked limit for the first time ever this morning. But the policy intended to stabilize trade, probably added to futures market volatility. -
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis August 13 - The crude oil slide will likely see the mid-to-high s, but the downside is probably limited from there. -
Crude Oil COT Chart August 13 2015 - Large speculators in crude oil futures have offset 30% of their bullish holdings since June. They now have plenty of buying power to put to use when prices turn the corner.
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Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis August 7 2015 - The seasonal low in natural gas futures is due in early September. In the meantime, support near .60 could be a place to consider getting bullish in this commodity. -
Natural Gas Futures, Low Volatility August 7 2015 - Natural gas futures are trading at relatively "cheap" levels with market volatility near historic lows. Perhaps the commodity bears have grown too comfortable and are due for a shake up. -
U.S. Dollar vs. Gold Futures July 31, 2015 - Most of the weakness in gold futures in recent years is at the hands of a stronger dollar, not necessarily gold market fundamentals. If the greenback falls, gold will rise. -
Gold Futures Seasonal Chart July 31, 2015 - According to MRCI (Moore Research Center Incorporated), data taken of December gold in the previous 5 years has seen a sharp price increase beginning in early August.
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Gold Futures Chart July 31, 2015 - The July 27th plunge in gold futures did some technical damage to the chart, but all is not lost. Trend reversals in gold futures are usually very messy; they typically take place over several trading sessions and offer traders plenty of sleepless nights and head fakes. Nonetheless, there are still some compelling technical analysis arguments for a potential gold recovery. -
Gold Futures COT Chart July 31 2015 - Large speculators are holding the smallest net short (bearish) position in gold futures we’ve seen in well over a decade. Some look at this as a potential bearish development for gold, but in light of the fact that this group of well-funded speculators have almost always been long gold, we look at it as a positive. -
Euro Futures Market Chart July 7, 2015 - The euro currency futures market is awaiting a resolution in Greece. In the meantime, the downside in the EU currency is probably limited to 128.0750. -
Aussie Dollar Futures Buying Opportunity? June 29, 2015 In the midst of the weekend Greek tragedy, the Aussie plunged into technical trend-line support in the mid-.7550 and has subsequently bounced. However, depending on events in Greece we can’t rule out one more leg of across the board selling in currencies (synonymous with buying of the U.S. dollar), that could lead the Aussie down to the mid-to-low .7400s. This would complete a retest of the March low and, in our opinion, would likely result in a double-bottom according to standard technical analysis. Thus, we’d be willing to get aggressively bullish if this level was seen.
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October Sugar Futures Chart June 2015 - Although all commodity prices are in the basement, the bear market in sugar seems to be off the radar of most futures traders. However, sometimes the best trading opportunities are in the commodity markets the masses are ignoring. Will sugar futures trading on the ICE exchange hold support and find a way to rally? -
Copper Futures Daily Chart June 5 2015 - The daily copper chart reveals a break of trend-line support. This should lure more selling, but the seasonal bottom typically occurs in mid-June. Thus, copper bulls should be looking for opportunities near support levels. -
Copper Futures Monthly Chart June 5 2015 - The monthly chart of copper reveals that the price of this commodity has traded above .40 for much of the last decade (the exception being the 2008 financial crisis). Thus, perhaps the downside is limited in this industrial metal. -
eurointraday June 2 2015 - The euro currency is soaring as the market squeezes out complacent bears ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. The FOREX market might also see volatility on Friday's payroll report.
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May 22 - Euro Currency Monthly Chart The Euro currency has recovered from the March lows, but if history has any bearing this could be only the beginning. Previous market reversals from trend-line support have seen 30 cent rallies! -
May 2015 Corn Futures Chart Corn futures have suffered at the hands of a massive bumper crop, but the lower dollar, seasonal weather concerns, and technical support should keep a floor under the market.
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October Sugar Futures Seasonally Bullish October sugar typically sees a boost via seasonal tendencies in late May, to early June. Thus, the bear market in sugar is in danger of a reversal. -
May 11 2015 Weekly ICE Dollar Index Chart The Dollar Index Futures contract could see more selling pressure! According to the COT Report by the CFTC, speculators are still extremely short the Euro (long the dollar). There could be more unwinding ahead! -
May 11 2015 - Monthly Chart of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Quantitative Easing and a weaker dollar, should force commodity prices higher. Despite the crude oil rally, commodities are still cheap. We haven't seen the Dow Jones-UBS commodity index below 100 since 2002. -
May 11 2015 Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Price Chart The crude oil rally might signal other commodities are cheap! The commodity market hasn't responded to the energy rally as much as one might expect.
