Futures Chart of the Day Archive
Technical analysis of commodity and financial futures markets by DeCarley Trading.
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Weekly Crude Oil Futures Chart October 3, 2018 - Taking a step back to look at the weekly chart of oil exposes a multi-year trading channel posing sharp resistance near the .00 area. A breakout would likely lead to a quick run toward .00 but we aren’t convinced that will be the case. In fact, the seasonal high in oil often takes place in early-to-mid-October, leaving the current rally vulnerable to both profit taking and annual cycle pressures. Instead, we believe a return to, at minimum, the mid-to-high-.00s is on the horizon.
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Daily Crude Oil Futures Chart October 3, 2018 - The daily chart of oil reveals overheated technical oscillators; for instance, the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the Williams %R, and Slow Stochastics are all hovering in overbought territory, which tends to promote a rally reversal if market participants are given reason to lock in profits. We have seen the RSI on a daily chart exceed a reading of 70 on two other occasions, both of which triggered sizable corrections.
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Crude Oil Seasonal Pattern October 3, 2018 - According to seasonal charts offered by MRCI (Moore Research Center Inc.) 30 years’ worth of crude oil price data points toward a price peak in the fall. Thus, as exciting as the oil rally might be now is probably not the time to be “all-in†with bullish positions.
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Weekly E-mini S&P 500 Futures February 28, 2018 - The E-mini S&P 500 broke out of a multi-year trading channel in January, only to fall back into the technical pattern in February. The size and velocity of the drop was likely due to the fact that it started at prices that shouldn't have been seen in a more "normal" market.
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Natural Gas Futures Feb 2018 February 16 - Natural gas prices have fallen sharply from early 2018 highs; although oscillators are classified as oversold they will likely become more so before significant buyers will step in. Considering trendline support dating back to 2015 and the expectation of a pack of sell stop loss orders beneath the December low, it seems probable natural gas futures will make their way into the .40s. Nevertheless, sharp support lies near .41 which we believe will be critical and has a high probability of supporting a price reversal.
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Natural Gas COT Report 2018 February 16 - Our friends at MRCI Inc. (Moore Research Center, Incorporated) compile seasonal stats on the commodity markets for a living. Their data dating back 27 years suggests that natural gas futures have been prone to posting some sort of market low in late February to early March. With current futures prices in the doldrums, this appears to be a particularly interesting pattern. A looming seasonal bottom, in combination with cheap prices and nearby technical support, could offer the bulls an opportunity for relatively comfortable speculation.
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T-Bond Futures Chart February 16 - Treasuries are testing trendline support (again). This pattern is becoming painful for the bulls (speaking from experience). That said, we've noticed the latest COT report suggests speculators are holding one of the largest net short positions in the 10-year note seen in over a decade. We have to wonder, is there anybody left to sell?
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E-mini S&P 500 Futures Chart Those that follow Fibonacci retracement theory will tell you that the S&P has retraced roughly 60% of its initial drop. Specifically, the market closed below 2750ish which is the 62% Fib retracement resistance. As mentioned above, several green bars doesn't necessarily make a bull market. There is still plenty of room for volatility, bullish trades should be taking off risk.
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US Dollar Futures on Ice Exchange August 1, 2017 - The dollar index has been in perpetual free fall but we are nearing areas that have acted as reversal points historically. We could be closer to a dollar bottom than many think. If so, it will put downside pressure on commodities such as copper and crude oil.
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Buy Crude Oil Strangles January 20, 2017 - Aggressive speculators might be interested in buying option strangles. In short, this involves buying a call option and a put option in the same expiration month. Because more options than not expire worthless, it is generally a good idea to shop for low-priced options which also pose low risk to traders.
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Crude Oil Seasonal Patterns going into 2017 January 20, 2017 - One of the most reliable seasonal patterns over the years has been the strength of crude oil beginning in the latter part of the first quarter and extending through most of the third quarter. This doesn’t mean that making money will be as easy as going long crude oil futures in January and selling in October, but it does mean that it might be a good idea to consider getting bullish on any large dip early in the year and getting bearish on any large rally later in the year.
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Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis January 20, 2017 - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is mid-range without any hints at momentum and the price of crude oil futures are waffling within a trading range that dates back to the 2015 lows. In short, we cannot see any edge that would give directional traders anything more than a 50/50 proposition.
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Crude Oil Futures COT Report Jan 2017 January 20, 2017 - It might be hard to believe, but crude oil futures speculators are holding the largest net long position we’ve seen since oil crashed from just over 0 per barrel and eventually landing in the high s. In other words, the last time speculators were this aggressively long, the price of oil dropped roughly 60% in six months! This tells us that the upside could be limited for now.
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e-mini S&P Put Options January 6, 2017 - There are no guarantees equity market volatility, and therefore implied volatility, will increase but the odds are in favor of it. Further, put options written on the S&P are at historically low levels. Now might be the time to consider buying cheap S&P put options. *Substantial risk of loss.
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Trump and the US Dollar September 19, 2016 - Donald Trump's trade policy and a desire for higher interest rates is a relatively mixed bag of fundamentals for the US currency. However, uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency could trigger short-term selling if he continues to improve in the election polls.
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Gold futures ahead of Indian wedding season September 15, 2016 - Despite the fact that gold futures speculators are holding a historically aggressive net long position, there might be reason for gold prices to firm up in the coming months. One of them is Indian wedding season demand (seasonals), and the other is a promising continuation pattern on the price chart.
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e-mini S&P 500 futures testing support? September 15, 2016 - We have a feeling the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract will experience a long squeeze going into expiration of the September contract. This is similar to a short squeeze, but it forces out the bullish traders as prices collapse. If so, we could see 2070 on the December contract.
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VIX Volatility Index Futures Chart August 25, 2016 - The weekly chart of the VIX reveals that slow stochastics have fallen into oversold territory and are now trending higher. This suggests there could be a trend change. Also, the VIX tends to bottom near current levels. Will market volatility return?
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Fed Funds Futures after Brexit July 12, 2016 - The Fed Funds futures market overreacted to Brexit. At its extreme, market participants were pricing in the possibility of a rate cut! However, the Fed still claims one to two rates cuts, if they stick to their guns, the Fed Funds futures contracts should be trading much lower.
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Fed Funds Futures Despite the fact that the FOMC has only raised interest rates once since 2008, the Fed Funds futures rates fluctuate on a daily basis based on expectations of the next move. In my opinion, there appears to be a low risk opportunity in getting bearish Fed Funds futures with expiration dates extending into late 2016 to early 2017. Keep in mind, the more distant the expiration, the higher the volatility will be. Nevertheless, these contracts move relatively slow and are margined low at less than 128,000.
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WTI Crude OIl Futures Daily Chart May 5, 2016 - WTI crude oil futures have enjoyed a massive rally from the February lows, but technical analysis suggests prices will be confined within the current trading channel. If so, the rally should be capped near , and any selling should find a floor in the low s.
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Gold Futures are on a Tear! April 28, 2016, Gold futures are proving the precious metals are in a bull market. The chart depicts a wedge pattern, which as generally assumed to be a continuation pattern in technical analysis. Accordingly, we are projecting another round of buying that could bring the price of gold to 128,340.
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The Crude Oil Rally probably isn't over yet April 8, 2016 - Oil futures prices have nearly doubled since their January lows, but the bull market probably has another leg to go. Technical oscillators are suggesting positive momentum, and the trading channel won't pose resistance until prices reach the mid-to-high s.
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U.S. Dollar Index hitting the skids? March 31, 2016 - The dollar index has been trading in a messy, but valid, trading range since late 2015. If the sideways “trend†continues, we should be looking at a decline toward 93.00 in the index. However, if prices break below 93.00, which we believe is a probable scenario, we could see a significant repricing. After all, momentum indicators, such as RSI are trending lower, and bullish dollar sentiment appears to be waning.
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Stock Market and WTI Oil Futures Correlation February 5, 2016 - In this weekly chart of the correlation between stock index futures and crude oil futures, it is clear the typical relationship is rather loose. Yet, when oil gets heated, the correlation becomes nearly perfect (meaning both markets move together).
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Treasury Futures Seasonal Pattern January 20, 2016 - Treasury futures tend to trade with a bearish bias in the month of January. However, this year has seen counter-seasonal trade. Nevertheless, if the market eventually conforms to a normal pattern the buying in T-bond and T-note futures should be temporary.
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CME emini S&P 500 futures January 7, 2015 - The ES futures contract has been in a virtual free-fall in sympathy to Chinese circuit breaker trading halts. However, fundamentals in the U.S. haven't changed despite the plunge. Perhaps tomorrow's employment numbers and earnings season will prop the e-mini S&P 500 futures back up!
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The euro and crude oil futures tend to bottom together December 11, 2015 - The euro currency futures contract tends to reverse trends in tandem with West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The Euro generally leads the charge, was this week's currency reversal telling us something about crude oil futures?
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Euro Currency Futures and the COT Report December 4, 2015 - This week will be one to remember for euro currency futures traders. December 3rd, marked the second biggest one-day move in the Euro. The first? It was in March of 2009 during the financial crisis. In both cases, speculators were simply too short, and had forced priced to artificially low prices. Eventually, the tables turned.
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Corn Seasonal Tendencies are Bullish November 23, 2015 - Corn futures prices generally find support at some point in October. This is known as the harvest lows, and represents the point in time that supplies are abundant. However, corn tends to firm up from there, finding reason to rally into February.
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Live Cattle Futures Trend Reversal? October 6, 2015- Cattle futures have tumbled precipitously. In fact, I don't recall such a decline ever occurring (at least not without the help of a mad cow scare). Further, seasonal factors typically call for sideways to higher trade for most of October and technical indicators are suggesting prices are massively oversold.
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Commitments of Traders Report - E-mini S&P 500 September 24 - The most recent COT Report was released on Friday September 19th, and accounts for data acquired on September 15th. At the time, small speculators were estimated to be holding a net long position in excess of 400,000. This is the first time we’ve seen this group get this aggressive on the long side of the market (ever). At the same time, the large speculator had amassed the largest net short position we’ve seen this group take since 2011; however, with a net short holding of roughly 250,000 contracts large speculators appear to still have capital available to add considerably to their position.
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If you are going to sell options, place the strike prices beyond technical support and resistance! September 15, 2015 - Blindly selling options on futures is a bad idea. Short option traders should actively monitor technical support and resistance; the strike price of any sold option should be beyond charting barriers.
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Futures market volatility and option selling September 15, 2015 - Too many commodity option sellers overlook the importance of monitoring volatility. A euro currency option strangle seller could have constructed a short strangle in late August FOR THE SAME PREMIUM with a profit zone that is 200 ticks wider than would have been possible in the previous week (before the spike in market volatility).
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30-Year Bond Futures Contract September 11, 2015 - The average speculator assumes that a Federal Reserve interest rate hike will automatically translate into lower Treasury futures prices, but that isn't necessarily a safe assumption. Futures markets typically price in future policy changes in advance (as they are telegraphed).
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ES Futures Chart ahead of the Federal Reserve September 11, 2015 - Stock index futures traders are focused on next week's historical Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. The chart is forming a wedge that could be resolved by the Fed. We suspect a downside break out in the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is most likely.
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WTI Crude Oil Futures COT Report September 2, 2015 - According to the Commitments of Traders Report issued by the CFTC, crude oil futures speculators liquidated 40% of their holdings on the recent slide. This should support prices because traders will likely want to put money back into the commodity markets.
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Goldman Sachs Commodity Index August 27 - A weekly chart of the GSCI depicts just how technically oversold the commodity complex has become. However, the chart could be suggesting a double bottom is in the works. The best trades in commodities will likely be from the long side of the futures markets.
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Gold Futures Chart July 31, 2015 - The July 27th plunge in gold futures did some technical damage to the chart, but all is not lost. Trend reversals in gold futures are usually very messy; they typically take place over several trading sessions and offer traders plenty of sleepless nights and head fakes. Nonetheless, there are still some compelling technical analysis arguments for a potential gold recovery.
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Gold Futures COT Chart July 31 2015 - Large speculators are holding the smallest net short (bearish) position in gold futures we’ve seen in well over a decade. Some look at this as a potential bearish development for gold, but in light of the fact that this group of well-funded speculators have almost always been long gold, we look at it as a positive.
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Aussie Dollar Futures Buying Opportunity? June 29, 2015 In the midst of the weekend Greek tragedy, the Aussie plunged into technical trend-line support in the mid-.7550 and has subsequently bounced. However, depending on events in Greece we can’t rule out one more leg of across the board selling in currencies (synonymous with buying of the U.S. dollar), that could lead the Aussie down to the mid-to-low .7400s. This would complete a retest of the March low and, in our opinion, would likely result in a double-bottom according to standard technical analysis. Thus, we’d be willing to get aggressively bullish if this level was seen.
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October Sugar Futures Chart June 2015 - Although all commodity prices are in the basement, the bear market in sugar seems to be off the radar of most futures traders. However, sometimes the best trading opportunities are in the commodity markets the masses are ignoring. Will sugar futures trading on the ICE exchange hold support and find a way to rally?